Bob Kolasky is the managing editor of IntellectualCapital.com. His e-mail address is bob@voxcap.com

COLUMBIA, S.C. -- How do you stop a steamroller once it gets going? That is the question Texas Gov. George W. Bush is confronting this week in South Carolina as he prepares for Saturday's key Republican primary.

Bush is in the political fight of his life against McCain

The Bush campaign long had maintained that the governor could afford to lose a primary or two without having his nomination placed in doubt, but that was before the campaign saw up close the price of losing momentum. Now Bush -- the former, and perhaps future, frontrunner for the Republican nomination -- is in the fight of his life with Sen. John McCain (AZ). How he is reacting, and how the voters react to him, will define him politically for better or worse throughout the 2000 campaign.

Already in this campaign, the Democratic frontrunner, Vice President Al Gore, has proven that sometimes the best thing for a presidential candidate is a little adversity. Last fall, Gore looked hopelessly out of sync as a candidate, a man destined to be defined for his association with President Clinton rather than who he was. But facing an unexpectedly strong challenge from former Democratic Sen. Bill Bradley (NJ), Gore found his rhythm as a campaigner. He became Gore the warrior, defender of the working man and woman, protector of the budget surplus and, most importantly, standard bearer for Democrats of all sizes and shapes. Gore solidified his hold on the Democratic nomination, which now is a foregone conclusion, by appealing to the key constituency in Democratic primaries: loyal Democrats.

A 'cold-eyed realist'

Bush's strategy in South Carolina is similar. One could forgive the governor for having the deer-in-the-headlights look on the days following the New Hampshire primary. McCain's 19-percentage-point triumph was as unexpected for the Bush campaign as it was energizing for the McCain camp. Couple that with polls that show McCain catching -- and, at times, passing -- Bush in South Carolina and Michigan, the next two big GOP primaries, and you understand why the Bush campaign had to shift tacks.

When Bush arrived in South Carolina last week, he cast a new playbook. Bush the "compassionate conservative" was now "a reformer with results." On the campaign trail, he talks repeatedly about his record of education reform, of tort reform, of tax reform. He even presents a meatier plan for "campaign-funding reform." The Texas governor's campaign has lost its laid-back image, defined by his serial smirk that made it look as if the governor was not taking the campaign as seriously as he should have been. Now Bush is deadly serious. On the stump, he is proud, engaged, defiant, playing on the audience's needs. He comes across as a coiled snake perpetually ready to pounce.

The plan is clear, and it borrows heavily (if not intentionally) from what worked so well for Gore. Bush himself defines it. Touring through South Carolina on Valentine's Day, the governor explained that he was campaigning so hard because he wanted to "rally my base here" and "consolidate the Republican Party." (His mission becomes even more important due to the fact that South Carolina has an "open" primary system, meaning that all registered voters can vote in the Republican primary regardless of party affiliation.)

Remember back to last year when so many questions surrounded just who George W. Bush was? No longer. Today those questions largely have been answered. The image that W. is presenting to voters of South Carolina is one of a rock-ribbed conservative Republican. He is a "cold-eyed realist" who believes that when it comes to foreign affairs, "a dangerous world requires a sharpened sword." He bashes Clinton, both fairly and unfairly, at every opportunity. He is fed up with high taxes, and he believes that Washington needs to get out of people's lives. We need to return part of the budget surplus to the American people in the form of tax cuts, Bush said at a rally in Greenwood, S.C., because "what's risky is leaving the money in Washington."

A targeted message

Bush's message is shaped to appeal to South Carolina Republicans -- and it appears to be working. A poll released Tuesday by USA Today/CNN showed that Bush had a 7% lead among likely voters in Saturday's primary, but among self-described Republicans, he had a 25-point lead. Those numbers were reinforced at Bush's stops throughout South Carolina.

The crowds at these rallies are exactly what you would expect South Carolina Republican crowds to be: men and women who applaud heavily at any mention of ejecting Clinton from office and cutting their taxes. They are loyal Southern Republicans who care about moral issues like home schooling and too much sex on TV, who worry about illegal immigration, and who think the Confederate-flag issue is a local one.

Bush is betting that, all things considered, the winner of the South Carolina Republican primary is going to be the candidate who most appeals to South Carolina Republicans -- and if that means playing to the base a little, well, there is nothing wrong with that. At each stop, Bush introduces a cavalcade of elected Republican officials to further emphasize his standing with the conservative establishment. From Lt. Gov. Bob Peeler down to men like state Rep. Chip Huggins who announced in Irmo, S.C., that the "South Carolina primary will decide the next president of the United States."

Huggins might be guilty of hyperbole, but there is strong reason to think that this primary will decide who will be the Republican nominee.

A beginning ... or an end?

It is going to be a dogfight. Without question, the new, more aggressive Bush has consolidated his base here, but McCain is not the average political challenger. His reformer message and war-hero personality have struck a chord with many South Carolinians, and frenzied crowds accompany McCain wherever he goes. McCain's rolling caravan, the "Straight Talk Express," is beginning to resemble a rock-star entourage. If you judged by the passion among the political rallies, you would have to predict a McCain victory.

But if there is an ironclad rule in political observation, it is that you not let yourself be caught in the hype. "McCain moves my heart," one South Carolina Republican told me after a day of hearing both candidates speak at Greenwood rallies, "but Bush moves my head."

In the end, that is as good an analogy as any for the two campaigns. McCain voters in South Carolina have put aside their various beliefs to place their hearts behind the ideal that is John McCain: pro-choice independents and Democrats voting for a pro-life Republican, solid conservatives voting for the man the hated liberal media swoons over, college students engaging in the process for the first time to support a man who could be their grandfather.

Meanwhile, Bush voters are in the South Carolina conservative establishment, voting with their heads -- the men and women who vote Republican because they want less government, a more moral society and lower taxes.

The dichotomy between Bush and McCain voters renders any prediction hazardous. A McCain win, coupled by victories three days later in Michigan and Arizona, could deliver a knockout blow to Bush's campaign. But the smart money in South Carolina seems to say that primary voters will vote with their heads and not their hearts, and that means that Bush is still the favorite.

If Bush does hang on, the Palmetto State will stand as the penultimate moment in the Bush campaign. It will be the place where Bush's campaign found its stride -- and it will be the place where George W. Bush the candidate found himself.