The UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has concluded in a new report that global warming is scientifically proven, and very dangerous. Their report was based partly on computer modeling. Another report, released on June 12, 2000 by a panel of government scientists, made a similar prognosis. That report, "Climate Change Impacts on the United States," was prepared by the U.S. Global Change Research Program, an executive branch project charged with coordinating the findings of federal agencies and private research facilities. The panel relied largely on computer simulations to come up with predictions of a 5 to 10 degree Fahrenheit rise in temperatures, rising sea levels, and a 10 percent increase in total precipitation over the next 100 years. The report warns that vulnerable ecosystems such as barrier islands and alpine meadows could be adversely affected or even eradicated by such climate changes.

Some question the use of computer simulations to predict climate changes, as they can produce wildly varying results. The dire forecasts of the government's report have been criticized as alarmist propaganda aimed at speeding ratification of the Kyoto Protocol, the 1997 international agreement requiring participating nations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2012. The United States has not ratified the agreement despite increasing pressure from environmental groups.

On One Hand...

With its new report, the U.S. government continues its wrong-headed attempt to convince the public that global warming will result in scorching summers, massive flooding, and disappearing eco-systems. The truth is, no one really knows what effect global warming will have on our climate, or whether its progress can be slowed through reduction of fuel emissions.

The government not only overstates the dangers of global warming, but its scientists fail to emphasize the possible benefits of the phenomenon. For example, agricultural production could increase with warmer temperatures, a change that would benefit farmers and increase food supply to needy areas.

Until solid science can prove what causes global warming and how it will effect the environment, the government should stop scaring the public with its half-baked predictions.

On the Other Hand...

Through gathering the most up-to-date and reliable information available, the government has concluded that global warming will have significant effects on our environment over the next century. This information is not meant to scare the public, as many of these changes will not affect people alive today. However, it is crucial that changes be made today to protect the environment for the people of 2100 and beyond.

The Kyoto Protocol should be ratified by the U.S. Senate so the United States can do its part to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Unless such steps are taken, the dire predictions described in the government's report will most likely come to pass.

• 1998 was the 20th consecutive year that the Earth's surface was warmer than its recent long-term average, which is the average for 1961 through 1990.

• Beginning in the 1950s, the use of CFCs and other stratospheric ozone depleting substances increased by nearly 10 percent per year until the mid-1980s, when international concern about ozone depletion led to the signing of the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer.

• Naturally occurring greenhouse gases include water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and ozone. Several classes of substances that contain fluorine, chlorine, or bromine are also greenhouse gases, but they largely a product of industrial activities.

• In the 20th century the burning of oil and other fossil fuels increased the atmospheric concentration of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide by 30 percent and industry introduced 70,000 synthetic chemicals to the environment, including some deadly toxins such as dioxin.

• Ground-level temperature measurements show the earth has warmed between 0.3 degrees and 0.6 degrees Celsius in the last century.

• In 1995, the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) confirmed that "the balance of evidence suggests that there is a discernible human influence on global climate." The report projected that global mean surface temperatures would increase by between 1 and 3.5 Celsius by 2100, the fastest rate of change since the end of the last ice age.

Environmental Protection Agency, United National Framework Convention on Climate Change, New York Times